Section 2 Football Week 9 Playoff Predictions

Projections are based on my current power rankings through Week 8 games. They have accurately picked the winning team, in each Section 2 game, over 80% of the time the last 3 years. Including 15-1 in Section 2 playoff games Week 8 and 27-2 overall.

Each class is broken down into Week 9 games and each playoff teams chance of advancing to each round. (Week 8 projections and rankings, before the games started, are below the current projections)

NOTE*  My computer rankings are updated after each week and I’ll have projections for Week 10 games. Stop back next week to view current projections.

Full Section 2 Rankings and crossover game predictions are listed below.

Class AA Playoffs

Week 9 Games
Shenendehowa over Columbia by 24
Shaker over Schenectady by 12

Chance of winning Class AA Championship

Winning Winning
Semi Final
Columbia 5.78% 0.35%
Shenendehowa 94.22% 44.13%
Schenectady 21.12% 6.78%
Shaker 78.88% 48.75%

Class A Playoffs

Week 9 Games

Burnt Hills over Queensbury by 25
Troy over Amsterdam by 0

Chance of winning Class A Championship

Winning Winning
Semi Final
Queensbury 4.79% 2.08%
Burnt Hills 95.21% 88.83%
Troy 50.00% 4.55%
Amsterdam 50.00% 4.55%

Class B Playoffs

Week 9 Games

Schalmont over Ravena by 11
Glens Falls over Schuylerville by 11

Chance of winning Class B Championship

Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s
Ravena 22.86% 12.22%
Schalmont 77.14% 60.79%
Schuylerville 22.67% 2.65%
Glens Falls 77.33% 24.34%

Class C Playoffs

Week 9 Games

Chatham over Mechanicville by 21
Hoosick Falls over Fonda-Fultonville by 27

Chance of winning Class C Championship

Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s
Mechanicville 8.51% 0.68%
Chatham 91.49% 40.99%
Fonda-Fultonville 3.53% 0.29%
Hoosick Falls 96.47% 58.05%

Class D Playoffs

Week 9 Games

Rensselaer over Whitehall by 9
Cambridge over Salem by 24

Chance of winning Class D Championship

Winning Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s Final
Whitehall 28.07% 3.73% 3.25%
Rensselaer 71.93% 20.13% 19.25%
Salem 5.65% 1.34% 1.06%
Cambridge 94.35% 74.80% 74.17%

Week 9 Crossover games.

Lansingburgh over Albany by 23
Cohoes over Cobleskill-Richmondville by 1
Hudson Falls over Bishop Maginn by 4
Saratoga Springs over South Glens Falls by 27
Mohonasen over Gloversville by 4
Ballston Spa over Scotia-Glenville by 7
CBA-Albany over Colonie Central by 30++
Ichabod Crane over Taconic Hills by 14
Bethlehem over LaSalle Institute by 4
Stillwater over Voorheesville by 13
Corinth over Warrensburg by 21
Granville over Lake George by 6

Section 2 Football Power Rankings through week 8.
(To get a projected margin of victory subract the higher ranked team from the lower ranked team)

74.57 Burnt Hills
67.8 Shaker
64.13 Shenendehowa
55.76 Schenectady
54.41 Schalmont
54.22 CBA-Albany
52.09 Troy
52.09 Amsterdam
50.39 Hoosick Falls
49.59 Queensbury
47.73 Chatham
44.35 Glens Falls
43.26 Ravena
40.52 Columbia
38.92 Ballston Spa
35.85 Cambridge
34.9 Niskayuna
33.64 Bethlehem
33.1 Schuylerville
32.28 Scotia-Glenville
32.15 Lansingburgh
30.05 LaSalle Institute
29.44 Guilderland
27.16 Mechanicville
25.69 Greenwich
25.62 Rensselaer
24.58 Colonie Central
24.24 Averill Park
23.98 Broadalbin-Perth
23.26 Fonda-Fultonville
22.39 Saratoga Springs
19.87 Mohonasen
18.53 Albany Academy
16.91 Whitehall
15.9 Gloversville
14.51 Cohoes
14.21 Corinth
14.13 Watervliet
13.08 Cobleskill-Richmondville
12.92 Canajoharie
12.35 Hudson Falls
12.08 Salem
11.89 Fort Edward
9.58 Albany
8.44 Ichabod Crane
8.35 Bishop Maginn
8 Stillwater
7.19 Granville
1.86 Tamarac
0.79 Lake George
-3.98 Johnstown
-4.63 Voorheesville
-4.71 South Glens Falls
-5.3 Taconic Hills
-6.34 Warrensburg
-13.2 Catholic Central
-15.12 Hudson
-17.14 Bishop Gibbons
-17.25 Green Tech
-19.51 Hoosic Valley
-20.46 Coxsackie-Athens

Section 2 Football Week 8 Playoff Predictions

Projections are based on my current power rankings through Week 7 games. They have accurately picked the winning team, in each Section 2 game, over 80% of the time the last 3 years. Each class is broken down into Week 8 games and each playoff teams chance of advancing to each round.

NOTE* My computer rankings will be updated after each week and I’ll have projections for Week 9 and 10 games. Stop back next week to view current projections.

Full Section 2 Rankings and crossover game predictions are listed below.

Class AA Playoffs

Week 8 Games

Shenendehowa over Colonie Central by 30++
Columbia over Guilderland by 2
Schenectady over CBA-Albany by 2
Shaker over Ballston Spa by 22

Chance of winning Class AA Championship

Winning Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s Final
Shenendehowa 99.87% 98.15% 62.99%
Colonie Central 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
Columbia 55.69% 1.17% 0.07%
Guilderland 44.31% 0.66% 0.03%
CBA-Albany 44.45% 12.69% 2.63%
Schenectady 55.55% 18.39% 4.54%
Ballston Spa 7.36% 1.48% 0.09%
Shaker 92.64% 67.45% 29.65%

Class A Playoffs

Week 8 Games

Burnt Hills over Mohonasen by 30++
Queensbury over Scotia-Glenville by 14
Amsterdam over Averill Park by 12
Troy over Gloversville by 23

 

Chance of winning Class A Championship

Winning Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s Final
Mohonasen 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Burnt Hills 99.92% 94.79% 90.97%
Queensbury 81.82% 5.06% 2.98%
Scotia-Glenville 18.18% 0.14% 0.04%
Averill Park 21.76% 4.78% 0.06%
Amsterdam 78.24% 37.85% 2.12%
Gloversville 5.95% 0.67% 0.00%
Troy 94.05% 56.70% 3.83%

Class B Playoffs

Week 8 Games

Schalmont over Ichabod Crane by 30++
Ravena over Broadalbin-Perth by 9
Schuylerville over Lansingburgh by 1
Glens Falls over Albany Academy by 16

Chance of winning Class B Championship

Winning Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s Final
Schalmont 99.89% 88.84% 78.28%
Ichabod Crane 0.11% 0.00% 0.00%
Broadalbin-Perth 28.41% 1.37% 0.46%
Ravena 71.59% 9.79% 5.34%
Schuylerville 52.39% 20.90% 2.38%
Lansingburgh 47.61% 17.97% 1.87%
Glens Falls 85.14% 57.06% 11.52%
Albany Academy 14.86% 4.07% 0.16%

Class C Playoffs

Week 8 Games

Hoosick Falls over Voorheesville by 30++
Fonda-Fultonville over Tamarac by 9
Watervliet over Mechanicville by 14
Chatham over Stillwater by 30++

Chance of winning Class C Championship

Winning Winning Winning
Round 1 Semi’s Final
Voorheesville 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Hoosick Falls 99.99% 98.99% 66.53%
Fonda-Fultonville 72.15% 0.94% 0.05%
Tamarac 27.85% 0.07% 0.00%
Watervliet 82.37% 10.70% 0.77%
Mechanicville 17.63% 0.43% 0.00%
Stillwater 1.08% 0.19% 0.00%
Chatham 98.92% 88.68% 32.64%

Week 8 Crossover and final regular season games.

Niskayuna over Bethlehem by 4
LaSalle Institute over Saratoga Springs by 12
Albany over South Glens Falls by 5
Cobleskill-Richmondville over Hudson by 13
Hudson Falls over Green Tech by 30++
Cohoes over Bishop Maginn by 6
Corinth over Taconic Hills by 6
Granville over Coxsackie-Athens by 22
Greenwich over Canajoharie by 8
Cambridge over Rensselaer by 14

Section 2 Football Power Rankings through week 7.
(To get a projected margin of victory subract the higher ranked team from the lower ranked team)

70.92 Burnt Hills
66.9 Shenendehowa
64.23 Shaker
56.04 Schenectady
54.39 Schalmont
53.94 CBA-Albany
50.4 Hoosick Falls
47.75 Queensbury
45.69 Troy
45.1 Chatham
44.02 Amsterdam
42.49 Ballston Spa
39.26 Glens Falls
37.96 Cambridge
37.9 Ravena
36.05 Columbia
36.03 Niskayuna
34.12 Scotia-Glenville
33.91 Guilderland
33.08 Schuylerville
32.51 Bethlehem
32.37 LaSalle Institute
32.31 Averill Park
32.18 Lansingburgh
29.34 Broadalbin-Perth
27.62 Watervliet
23.62 Albany Academy
23.51 Mohonasen
23.51 Rensselaer
23.07 Greenwich
22.31 Gloversville
21.81 Colonie Central
20.06 Saratoga Springs
16.96 Fonda-Fultonville
15.54 Canajoharie
15.33 Whitehall
14.59 Cohoes
13.67 Mechanicville
13.67 Salem
12.65 Hudson Falls
10.63 Stillwater
8.45 Ichabod Crane
8.27 Bishop Maginn
8.16 Tamarac
7.47 Corinth
7.44 Fort Edward
5.68 Cobleskill-Richmondville
5.25 Lake George
4.73 Albany
4.51 Granville
1.44 Taconic Hills
0.14 South Glens Falls
-3.98 Johnstown
-4.64 Voorheesville
-6.34 Warrensburg
-7.72 Hudson
-13.2 Catholic Central
-17.14 Bishop Gibbons
-17.55 Green Tech
-17.79 Coxsackie-Athens
-19.51 Hoosic Valley

Section 2 Week 7 Rankings

Here are this week’s rankings before the games start.

4.14

Albany

20.84

Albany Academy

40.96

Amsterdam

33.84

Averill Park

36.70

Ballston Spa

28.37

Bethlehem

(20.25)

Bishop Gibbons

10.35

Bishop Maginn

27.67

Broadalbin-Perth

61.35

Burnt Hills

39.18

Cambridge

14.33

Canajoharie

(15.05)

Catholic Central

54.47

CBA-Albany

42.93

Chatham

7.35

Cobleskill-Richmondville

18.66

Cohoes

25.95

Colonie Central

45.62

Columbia

1.60

Corinth

(11.92)

Coxsackie-Athens

19.27

Fonda-Fultonville

7.44

Fort Edward

37.73

Glens Falls

25.59

Gloversville

0.45

Granville

(18.27)

Green Tech

26.17

Greenwich

34.49

Guilderland

(19.51)

Hoosic Valley

49.53

Hoosick Falls

(6.42)

Hudson

17.28

Hudson Falls

4.38

Ichabod Crane

(3.98)

Johnstown

29.94

LaSalle Institute

8.03

Lake George

34.96

Lansingburgh

12.37

Mechanicville

21.93

Mohonasen

40.53

Niskayuna

44.46

Queensbury

38.62

Ravena

25.36

Rensselaer

10.88

Salem

25.85

Saratoga Springs

49.76

Schalmont

51.54

Schenectady

14.23

Schuylerville

32.04

Scotia-Glenville

66.66

Shaker

66.37

Shenendehowa

3.21

South Glens Falls

14.69

Stillwater

3.61

Taconic Hills

9.03

Tamarac

47.28

Troy

(6.94)

Voorheesville

(3.18)

Warrensburg

30.52

Watervliet

12.16

Whitehall

 

2012 Week 6 Section 2 Football Predictions

Overall record 80-15 .805

I don’t have time to post game by game projections but here are my rankings for each team perform all the games start this week. I’ll tally the record next week when I get home.

To get a projection subtract the higher ranked team from the lower ranked team.

2.692074

Albany

26.53271

Albany Academy

35.76038

Amsterdam

31.12549

Averill Park

30.81968

Ballston Spa

27.30098

Bethlehem

-26.5556

Bishop Gibbons

15.06006

Bishop Maginn

20.88379

Broadalbin-Perth

66.55286

Burnt Hills

41.67686

Cambridge

14.02244

Canajoharie

-14.7397

Catholic Central

60.34953

CBA-Albany

51.64257

Chatham

-0.61182

Cobleskill-Richmondville

21.20825

Cohoes

34.12143

Colonie Central

37.45348

Columbia

1.130127

Corinth

-12.9055

Coxsackie-Athens

27.22644

Fonda-Fultonville

6.752185

Fort Edward

37.95605

Glens Falls

20.28359

Gloversville

-1.83811

Granville

-14.0959

Green Tech

23.66944

Greenwich

35.55913

Guilderland

-15.7067

Hoosic Valley

49.9903

Hoosick Falls

-8.96533

Hudson

17.05469

Hudson Falls

0.211426

Ichabod Crane

-3.98438

Johnstown

39.92191

LaSalle Institute

0.968025

Lake George

30.62354

Lansingburgh

20.2146

Mechanicville

17.21631

Mohonasen

34.45804

Niskayuna

38.77539

Queensbury

42.95268

Ravena

31.67143

Rensselaer

7.078991

Salem

30.08328

Saratoga Springs

49.76221

Schalmont

48.41362

Schenectady

21.01369

Schuylerville

33.49268

Scotia-Glenville

72.72996

Shaker

62.13876

Shenendehowa

8.513672

South Glens Falls

6.849632

Stillwater

1.150663

Taconic Hills

11.32358

Tamarac

49.99464

Troy

-5.9577

Voorheesville

-2.4849

Warrensburg

32.97234

Watervliet

19.22634

Whitehall

 

2012 Section 2 Football Predictions Week 5

Last week 20-8. Overall 49-9 .844

Albany Academy over Ichabod Crane by

27

Amsterdam over Ravena by

5

Averill Park over Bishop Maginn by

16

Ballston Spa over Albany by

23

Burnt Hills over Gloversville by 30++
Cambridge over Catholic Central by 30++
Canajoharie over Bishop Gibbons by 30++
CBA-Albany over Bethlehem by 30++
Chatham over Watervliet by

13

Cohoes over Green Tech by 30++
Columbia over LaSalle Institute by

7

Fonda-Fultonville over Coxsackie-Athens by 30++
Fort Edward over Salem by

5

Glens Falls over Broadalbin-Perth by

6

Greenwich over Rensselaer by

5

Guilderland over Saratoga Springs by

2

Hoosick Falls over Schuylerville by

26

Lake George over Warrensburg by

1

Lansingburgh over Hudson by 30++
Mechanicville over Corinth by

25

Niskayuna over Colonie Central by

4

Queensbury over South Glens Falls by

27

Schalmont over Cobleskill-Richmondville by 30++
Scotia-Glenville over Mohonasen by

10

Shenendehowa over Shaker by

6

Tamarac over Stillwater by

2

Troy over Schenectady by

10

Voorheesville over Granville by

18

Whitehall over Hoosic Valley by

24

 

2012 Section 2 Football Predictions Week 4

Started off great last week with a record of 29-1. Here are this weeks power ranking projections.

Amsterdam over Gloversville by

19

Averill Park over Scotia-Glenville by

14

Bethlehem over Albany by

9

Broadalbin-Perth over Schalmont by

9

Burnt Hills over Queensbury by

24

Cambridge over Bishop Gibbons by 30++
CBA-Albany over Saratoga Springs by

29

Cohoes over Granville by

7

Colonie Central over Mohonasen by

9

Columbia over Guilderland by

12

Fonda-Fultonville over Chatham by

5

Fort Edward over Whitehall by

12

Green Tech over Hudson by

9

Greenwich over Catholic Central by 30++
Hoosic Valley over Lake George by

8

Hoosick Falls over Stillwater by 30++
Hudson Falls over South Glens Falls by

11

Lansingburgh over Ichabod Crane by 30++
LaSalle Institute over Niskayuna by

1

Ravena over Albany Academy by

8

Rensselaer over Canajoharie by

3

Salem over Warrensburg by

12

Schuylerville over Cobleskill-Richmondville by

20

Shaker over Schenectady by 30++
Shenendehowa over Ballston Spa by 30++
Taconic Hills over Voorheesville by

13

Tamarac over Corinth by

13

Troy over Bishop Maginn by 30++
Watervliet over Coxsackie-Athens by 30++

 

2012 Section 2 High School Football Predictions

Every year starting in Week 3 of the local High School football season I begin posting my computer generated predictions for Section 2 High School football games. The predictions are based on power rankings I’ve created using strength of schedule and margin of victory. Here are the last two years record predicted on this site.

2011 176-33 .842

2010 196-41 .827

I don’t expect that type of success again, like I had last year, but I do hope to be around 80 percent correct on the games.

Here are week 3 projections.

Albany Academy over Hudson by 30++
Averill Park over Mohonasen by

17

Bishop Maginn over Green Tech by

9

Broadalbin-Perth over Hudson Falls by

16

Burnt Hills over South Glens Falls by 30++
Cambridge over Lake George by 30++
Canajoharie over Hoosic Valley by

12

CBA-Albany over LaSalle Institute by

10

Chatham over Voorheesville by

24

Fonda-Fultonville over Watervliet by

6

Fort Edward over Catholic Central by 30++
Glens Falls over Cobleskill-Richmondville by

22

Greenwich over Whitehall by

19

Guilderland over Ballston Spa by

5

Hoosick Falls over Taconic Hills by 30++
Lansingburgh over Cohoes by

20

Mechanicville over Granville by

14

Niskayuna over Gloversville by

14

Queensbury over Amsterdam by

5

Ravena over Ichabod Crane by 30++
Rensselaer over Salem by

11

Saratoga Springs over Albany by

16

Schalmont over Schuylerville by

16

Schenectady over Colonie Central by

2

Shaker over Columbia by

18

Shenendehowa over Bethlehem by 30++
Stillwater over Corinth by

1

Tamarac over Johnstown by

24

Troy over Scotia-Glenville by

26

Warrensburg over Bishop Gibbons by

19

 

Section 2 Boys Soccer Predictions *Championships*

Listed below are projections for the final 5 soccer games for Section 2 this season.  Here are a few comments on the tournament and an update to my experiment “predicting” games against the sectional seeding committee.

The overall sectional prediction record is 45-15 (.750). Down 5-10% from the regular season. The regular season games are mostly inter-conference games and the predictions will be more accurate as you can compare more data between the teams in each conference.  Once you start playing teams in different conferences the rankings and predictions become more difficult. That being said, I’m happy with the overall results using just final score data and a strength of schedule component I’ve created.

I’ve stated in another entry how I had the WAC conference rated too high.  Once the on field play began, helping adjust all the teams, the rankings (between different conferences) seemed very accurate when comparing teams throughout Section 2.

You can also look back at a bunch of early season non-league games and you’ll see that the majority of the actual ON FIELD results would still be predicted using the current rankings. I think that is another good sign of a ranking system.

Here are a few notes about each class:

Class AA

The committee needs to scrap the idea of separating its teams by conference (Big 10 vs Suburban). The Big 10 can’t compete currently with the Suburban and should be seed accordingly. In both the 2010 and 2011 tournaments the Big 10 has had only 1 participant make the final eight. Yes 1, that’s it. No Big Ten teams have made it to the Semi’s in either year.

In my opinion they should open seed this class like all the others 1-16?, even if the top 6 seeds are all from the Suburban Council. You are actually rewarding a lower level Suburban team by having them play a higher seeded team from the Big 10. Get rid of the current system.

Class A

I had a hard time understanding how Albany Academy, a team that plays in a league of mostly teams in classes below them, could be the #1 seed in Class A. They were beat on the field by the #2 seed in Class B (Ichabod Crane) so someone that knows more about soccer than I do will have to explain that to me.

My rankings actually called for #9 Glens Falls to upset #1 Albany Academy by 1 goal….and it happened….Glens Falls 1 AA 0. The committee missed on them badly and also missed on the strength of the Foothills Council.

Class B

The committee’s seeds held serve in the final four other than their #3 seed Doane Stuart. Another shocker seed for me when looking at the tournament brackets when they were released. Doane Stuart played in a league that had ZERO Class B teams, yet the committee thought they were the 3rd best B team in the section. Huh? Doane Stuart should have been a double digit seed without a question based on league strength and non league games played  by this conference.

Class C

Once again the committee did a nice job getting 3 out of 4 teams to the semi-finals. However, they seemed to have the same problem as I did, thinking the WAC Conference was stronger than it really was. The Wasaren League teams made a statement and took care of all WAC competition.

Class D

The Adirondack League teams dominated this bracket with 4 teams, filling 4 spots, in the Semi-Finals. They were far superior to the CHVL and WAC, Class D teams.

—————————————————————————————————————

OK,  there are 5 games left and the computer rankings have 4 game lead on the committee. For the championships we only we differ on 1 game so the experiment of my rankings versus the committee’s eyes is over. The Rankings win the 2011 tournament of seeding vs predictions. So without further adieu……… Here are the projections for the 5 championships.

*Side Note: 3 of these games look to be absolute coin-flip’s so I’m not confident at all with the predicted results. We’ll see how it shakes out.  Good luck to anyone who’s participating or is a fan of one of the final 10 schools playing this weekend in Section 2.

11/5/2011

Margin Yes No
Shenendehowa over Colonie by

0.56

Queensbury over Mohonasen by

0.21

x
Broadalbin-Perth over Ichabod Crane by

2.24

x
Maple Hill over Lake George by

0.02

x
Fort Ann over Argyle by

2.1

x

 

Section 2 Football Projections *Championships*

Last week 22-4

Overall 171-33 (.838)

Week 10        
         
Shenendehowa over Columbia by

15.98

Burnt Hills over Amsterdam by

6.63

Schalmont over Albany Academy by

8.15

Hoosick Falls over Fonda by

12.47

Cambridge over Rensselaer by

28.21

 

Section 2 Boys Soccer Predictions 11/03

Overall record for sectionals 42-14 .750

4 games ahead of sectional selection committee with the Lake George win yesterday.

Today there are no differences in our picks.

Projected winners

Shen, Bethlehem, ICC, and BP

Full Rankings listed here:

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/2011section2boysrankings